An Essay Towards Solving A Problem In The Doctrine

LII. An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine
of Chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated
by Mr. Price, in a letter to conjuring trick Canton, M. A. and
F. R. S.
Dear Sir,
Read Dec. 23, 1763. I now send you an rise which I have found among the papers
of our deceased friend Mr. Bayes, and which, in my opinion, has great merit,
and well deserves to be preserved. Experimental philosophy, you will ?nd, is
roughly interested in the subject of it; and on this account in that location seems to be
particular reason for thinking that a communication of it to the royal stag Society
cannot be improper.
He had, you know, the honour of being a component of that illustrious Society, and was much esteemed by many as a very able mathematician. In an
introduction which he has writ to this Essay, he says, that his design at ?rst in
thinking on the subject of it was, to ?nd out a rule by which we office judge
concerning the probability that an event has to happen, in given circumstances,
upon conceit that we know nothing concerning it but that, under the kindred
circumstances, it has happened a received number of times, and failed a certain
other number of times.



He adds, that he soon perceived that it would not be
very di?cult to do this, provided some rule could be found, according to which
we ought to estimate the relegate that the probability for the happening of an
event perfectly unknown, should lie between any two named degrees of probability, antecedently to any experiments made about(predicate) it; and that it appeared
to him that the rule must be to suppose the chance the same that it should
lie between any two equidi?erent degrees; which, if it were allowed, all the rest
might be easily calculated in the common method of proceeding in the doctrine
of chances. Accordingly, I ?nd among his papers a very ingenious solution of
this problem in this way. however he afterwards considered, that the postulate on
which he had argued might not perhaps be looked upon by all as...If you want to sound a full essay, order it on our website: Orderessay



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